Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 211.791584 258.457149 316.663961 395.999728 503.575480 6.478423e+02 8.622520e+02
2025-05-11 159.409573 212.881865 288.497469 407.928374 601.519605 9.229831e+02 1.548861e+03
2025-05-18 129.185982 183.031135 265.907969 411.365109 681.710781 1.218298e+03 2.564470e+03
2025-05-25 107.862200 159.383175 243.713928 404.020941 736.347492 1.504966e+03 3.962483e+03
2025-06-01 92.099478 140.526901 223.663511 392.123559 774.711226 1.788418e+03 5.906787e+03
2025-06-08 80.145946 125.483716 206.397586 379.348542 804.477965 2.080433e+03 8.696758e+03
2025-06-15 76.545212 123.997753 213.202050 418.418318 983.476736 3.036681e+03 1.944745e+04
2025-06-22 69.965237 115.950303 205.494549 422.320657 1070.663171 3.806007e+03 3.656260e+04
2025-06-29 65.416956 110.931507 202.798693 437.459900 1204.611692 5.052711e+03 8.688879e+04
2025-07-06 60.042876 103.519636 193.598568 433.018384 1271.313533 6.119296e+03 1.939353e+05
2025-07-13 58.608703 103.669385 200.923249 476.361554 1557.224731 9.641358e+03 1.643125e+06
2025-07-20 56.798268 102.757703 205.627517 514.399038 1866.102231 1.518981e+04 5.596906e+08
2025-07-27 54.306638 100.272547 206.636427 543.754019 2186.687791 2.417233e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 51.460869 96.654377 204.216230 561.570057 2480.419339 3.762920e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 48.401827 92.163689 198.718747 566.751368 2714.155172 5.609064e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 45.079412 86.683470 189.660469 555.577030 2828.614263 7.592959e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 41.886958 81.164170 179.641981 537.545124 2876.920234 9.763183e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 38.997826 76.062898 170.028073 518.266528 2899.327522 1.234340e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 38.791224 77.257686 178.303536 577.492403 3760.133430 4.184022e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 37.028278 74.504681 174.692487 583.450946 4118.745605 9.110312e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 35.840130 73.034643 174.671349 606.639453 4766.357169 3.732198e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 34.033283 69.844194 168.907908 599.824644 5020.201446 1.193656e+07 NaN
2025-10-05 33.930500 70.943421 176.727673 666.738712 6685.621547 NaN NaN